I have not rewatched the Star Wars trilogy in quite some time, but it will hardly come as a surprise that the original three films remain my favorites. Many of their scenes have become classics, yet I was surprised myself when, while reading Allied Offsets’ report on the voluntary carbon market for the first half of this year — a report from what is arguably the most important global information provider for carbon markets — a long-forgotten image came to mind. It’s the scene at the start of the 1983 film Return of the Jedi where the frozen Han Solo, displayed as a wall ornament in Jabba the Hutt’s palace, is de-hibernated and, half-blind and still shivering, begins to regain his awareness and vitality. This is of course not meant as a metaphor for my return to blogging after the summer break. But as I interpreted the report, that scene kept replaying in my mind, because it captures precisely what is happening with carbon credits, and in particular with the market’s Han Solo-level protagonist: carbon dioxide removal credits (CDRs). Emerging from roughly two years of frozen conditions, the voluntary carbon market in 2025 has shifted into a revival mode powered by CDRs, and there is already clear statistical evidence of this.
In the first half of the year the CDR market was marked by an unprecedented level of buyer activity and clear, dynamic growth. A closer look at the carbon removal segment analysis shows the same picture in more detail: across the board, unmistakable signs of movement and positive change are visible. To be fair, Allied Offsets — which currently tracks the activity of 17,600 buyers in the voluntary carbon market — was still lamenting in January that the market remained oversupplied, with a large stock of aging credits undermining proper price formation. That remains true, but in Europe, the keyword was already clarity. The data provider highlighted this both as the defining characteristic and as the challenge ahead, noting that we would soon have a clearer view of the market’s future once the EU finalizes its approved carbon removal methodologies under the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF). This will also determine the long-term trajectory of supply in the compliance market under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), where free allowances will be sharply reduced and fully phased out by 2035.
This market transformation is unfolding right before our eyes. I can share at least three pieces of good news at once in the fight against climate change. First, the two reports mentioned earlier, which reviewed the first half of the year, describe record market transactions: in the first six months of 2025 companies purchased carbon dioxide removal credits equivalent to 16 million tonnes of CO₂ to offset part or all of their remaining carbon footprint. While a significant portion of these recorded purchases can be linked to Microsoft, which continues to set an example for the market, I believe, as I have written before about similar cases, that such visible moves, pioneering initiatives and early solutions can be contagious. The second piece of good news supports this view: not only are new corporate buyers continuously entering the carbon credit market, but their share has now become dominant. In the first half of 2025 around half of all offsetting companies were first-time buyers, taking their initial steps into the world of transparent carbon offsetting. Third, pricing has finally begun to move upward. Technology-based CDR credits are now trading steadily at USD 180 per tonne, while the average price for nature-based solutions has increased from USD 17 last year to USD 25 per tonne. This is further reinforced by the fact that biomass-based CDR approaches such as BECCS, or bioenergy with carbon capture and long-term storage, and biochar (BHC) are among the most sought-after technologies.
Of course, this is by no means a guaranteed path to success; it is rather just the first few, seemingly hopeful signs of a global shift. Allied Offsets also emphasized that all of this is still far from being sufficient to achieve the 2050 Net Zero emission targets. But the direction is right, and at least the momentum is already there.
Blood is flowing again in Han Solo’s body, his mind is clearing, and I am very confident that soon we will witness such spectacular market actions that they could literally drop our jaws: in the end —following his friend and fellow fighter — perhaps even the last Jedi will return and bring about the long-awaited breakthrough in the carbon market. Hallelujah!
This article was first published on the 16th of September, by Levente Tóth, CEO of mitigia, on their personal LinkedIn profile.