Lately, when I have a little extra time to reflect, I consciously choose to read analyses from credible global think tanks. This is not easy in the postmodern media noise, much of which is simply “fake news.” The reports of the International Energy Agency can be contrasted with the various reports of the EMBER. This is the only way to gain a more complete understanding of the “big picture.”
EMBER has already been discovered by domestic sustainability consultants and some of the media, which is no surprise: their analyses reveal serious depth in relation to the energy transition and climate mitigation efforts in a way that is easy to understand. The organization's direct predecessor, Sandbag, spent more than a decade working to transform the EU's carbon market and phase out coal in the energy sector, and I learned a great deal from them and through them.
I just finished reading EMBER's latest global annual analysis. It is interesting how they pointed out, and this was also reported in the world press, that last year was the first since the long-forgotten 1940s (!!!) in which the total output of the world's carbon-free and low-carbon electricity generation systems exceeded 40 percent of global electricity consumption. I liked how they marked it as a milestone that solar and wind power generated more electricity in the world than water for the first time, while the share of nuclear power in the electricity generation mix reached a 45-year low. But other correlations perhaps surprised me even more!
According to our self-image, we Europeans are the most committed people in the world, having done and continuing to do the most to bring about an energy transition in our civilization. Many of us believe, or even “know” from reliable sources, that the main reason why the big picture is not improving (quickly enough) is China, because that is where these goals are least likely to be achieved. Looking at Hungary, which consumes 47 TWh of electricity per year and has a vision of 68 TWh, and then looking at China, based on the EMBER study, we actually see the following, which clearly refutes the above European public opinion:
1) China alone contributed 250 TWh of new capacity to the world's record solar power expansion last year, which added 474 TWh of capacity to the global power grid. With this increase, China now accounts for 39 percent of the world's total solar power generation.
2) In addition, global wind energy production increased by 182 TWh in 2024, of which China accounted for 106 TWh. This brings China's wind power generation to nearly 1,000 TWh per year, which also accounts for 40 percent of global wind power generation.
3) Electricity generation from nuclear power plants, which are considered clean but not renewable, grew globally by roughly the same amount last year (69 TWh) as in 2023 (59 TWh), but China added only 10 TWh of capacity with four new reactors, accounting for only 15 percent of the increase.
4) Although China produced the largest increase in coal consumption in the world in 2024, the annual increase of 110 TWh is almost “good” after the 341 TWh capacity expansion in 2023. Of course, the size of the Chinese coal-fired power market (5864 TWh/year) is still dramatic, but its growth is slowing significantly.
So, it is not nuclear power at all that is being promoted, but primarily renewables, and coal-based expansion is also clearly slowing down! Based on the conclusion of the analysis, I believe that not only has the global energy transition moved from the category of “is it achievable?” to “how quickly can it be achieved?”, but also that China is now leading the way in this regard.
This article was first published on the 3rd June, by Levente Tóth, CEO of mitigia, on their personal LinkedIn profile.
Cover picture: Alci Alliata, Unsplash
