‘All or Nothing’ is the title of an American action film made in 2023, which its producers expected to be a huge success, describing it as a kind of female James Bond movie. The Amazonian heroine, played by Gal Gadot, was charming, kicked ass, and fought until she finally saved the world. However, this proved insufficient for commercial and audience success. Of course, it's easy to be wise after the event, but perhaps it would have been better to promise that Netflix would put everything it thinks about world-saving action films into it, which would have made the lack of a well-developed plot more forgivable.
All this came to mind in connection with the grand energy plan named after Ányos Jedlik. The Program with a capital P, which wants everything and promises something to everyone. The combined EU and domestic state subsidies of 440 billion forints are expected to upgrade the entire Hungarian energy system at once. This was first mentioned by the minister, and since the announcement in March, it has also become clear that the amount will be divided into ten chapters, with most of the calls for proposals being activated in the second half of the year. Nearly a quarter of the subsidies will go to geothermal energy and the district heating sector, while a tenth will go to the biogas and biomethane sector. The largest budget, 270 billion forints, will support energy efficiency investments by businesses, building insulation, and energy efficiency improvements in manufacturing processes. However, there will also be a separate section for supporting energy storage investments, which, based on my own quick calculations, will receive a maximum of 34 billion, which is less than 10% of the program.
The question is not about change, but whether this amount will be enough on its own. There is no debate: all areas concerned are in dire need of such incentives! However, the ‘a little bit of everything’ approach also signifies a lack of focus. The volume and target of energy storage subsidies – according to which the current storage capacity of 20-30 MW (sic!) will increase to 500 MW next year – does not make sense to me. Based on Mol's 40 MW energy storage project in Tiszaújváros, which is scheduled for completion next March with an investment of 6.6 billion (including ~40%, or 2.7 billion, in state subsidies) by next March, the 500 MW national storage capacity does not seem entirely feasible in terms of either time or size. This would require the launch, tendering, financing, completion, and commissioning of 10-12 similar gig-scale green energy storage investments. In theory, the 34 billion could cover this, with a subsidy intensity of around 40%, similar to the above project, but most of these should already have been announced or will need to be announced soon in order to meet the deadline. This is critical to prevent Hungarian electricity prices from fluctuating continuously at European champion level due to the lack of efficient and large-scale energy storage. Currently, the price of the huge imbalance in the electricity market is paid, on the one hand, by industrial users who support KÁT and METÁR solar power plants through system usage fees, while market (PPA) solar power plant operators are bleeding dry, which has now created an unsustainable situation for the domestic green transition.
Due to the huge gap between the preliminary media hype and the subsequent reviews, Rolling Stone magazine ultimately ranked the film “All or Nothing” among the ten worst films of the year, and the film was a total flop. The director's vision is there in the Jedlik Ányos Energy Program, the media hype is there, but the script is still very incomplete, and the actors and filming locations have not yet been finalized. However, the world premiere at the end of next year has already been announced, so let's hope that it doesn't end up being a complete wash!
This article was first published on the 20th May, by Levente Tóth, CEO of mitigia, on their personal LinkedIn profile.
